One scenario for every buck Wolf lost on Jeopardy!
It all began more than a year ago, for some just weeks after the end of their European Championship campaigns. Yet here we are today, with just a single game to play in the group stage of World Cup qualifying, and there is still so much to be settled. Only four of the nine groups are settled– first team through, second having clinched their place in one of next month’s home-and-home playoffs. There are eighteen nations with skin in the game today. Just ten will go to bed with some satisfaction.
The games are underway, so let’s get right to it. Lot to learn. After the jump: What needs to happen to see that Cristiano Ronaldo stays north of the equator in June and July… the recipe that puts God’s Chosen Footballers into their first World Cup in almost four decades… my best attempt to explain how Norway could somehow pip the Group A runner-up to a spot in the playoffs… and a look at how those playoff matchups might look. (If you’re just here to browse, the names in bold have qualified for South Africa, while those in italics have guaranteed their survival into November.
*Update* We’ll also be providing score and situation updates under the scenario explanations for each group, so you can click and refresh for all the latest. Enjoy! (Even it’s just a warmup for Argentina-Uruguay tonight!)
We’re taking this group by group. For a more thorough look at the tables, check out Fifa’s official page.
***GROUP ONE***
-Denmark has qualified for the 2010 World Cup. The rest is less certain.
-Portugal controls their own fate. With a win today home to Malta, Cristiano and Co. are into the playoff round.
-Sweden needs all three points from their game against Albania and a loss or tie from Portugal to finish second.
-Hungary needs a win, a Portugal loss, and a Sweden tie or loss. But even if all that happens, the Hungarians would still need to make up significant amounts of goal differential– four against the Swedes, seven against Portugal. And they can’t do it by winning 1-0 and having the other guys lose 0-8 and 0-5, cos that could open the door for Group Nine’s Norway…
Denmark 0 v Hungary 1 L
Sweden 3 v Albania 0 L
Portugal 3 v Malta 0 L
***GROUP TWO***
-Switzerland can finish no worse than second. A point home to Israel and they are through to the big dance. A loss and victory for Greece means they drop into the playoff pool.
-Greece go through to South Africa if they can beat Luxembourg and Israel defeats the Swiss. Any victory locks them into second.
-Israel can make the playoff with a win and loss or tie from Greece.
-And even lil’ ol’ Latvia, with the force of Arturs Irbe in their corner (as a fan, I guess… Georger, see link), can sneak into the second. They need losses from Greece and Israel and a considerable victory home to Moldova. They trail Greece and Israel by 7 and 8 goals, respecitively, in the GD count.
Switzerland 0 v Israel 0 FINAL
Greece 2 v Luxembourg 1 FINAL
Latvia 3 v Moldova 2 FINAL
***GROUP THREE***
-Like the Swiss, Slovakia are locked into a playoff spot. A win at Poland and they’re group winners. Anything less than three points from Slovenia and again, Slovakia wins Group Three.
-Slovenia needs a win at San Marino to guarantee their playoff spot. Couple that with a Slovakia loss or tie and it’s off to South Africa. A draw will not do it for them, as they’d run the risk of an assault from behind.
-Threatening to bugger Slovenia are the Czech Republic. The Czechs need a win at home against N. Ireland and a Slovenia loss or tie to sneak into the playoff round.
-Northern Ireland can still make it too. They’d need to beat the Czechs by a bunch and have Slovenia lose by a bunch, as they trail the latter by 7 in the GD chart.
Czech Republic 0 v Northern Ireland 0 L
San Marino 0 v Slovenia 2 L
Poland 0 v Slovakia 1 L
***GROUP FOUR***
-Germany are through after winning 25 points in nine games.
-The Russkies have clinched a playoff berth with 21 points of their own.
***GROUP FIVE***
-Spain clinched their place in South Africa with a perfect 9-for-9 record in group play.
-Bosnia-Hercegovina is into the playoff round on 19 points.
***GROUP SIX***
-INGERLAND is right on target for their q-final ouster.
-Ukraine– shocker!– needs a win in Andorra and they clinch the second spot, thereby ousting…
-Croatia! Whooda thunk it? Unless Ukraine lose, victory today in Kazakhstan will be for naught. Guess Luka, Niko, and Vedran will have to sit home this summer and be healthy.
UPDATE – Ukraine cantered to victory, 6-0, while Croatia stumbled past the Kazakhs 2-1. Alas, for Slaven, it was all in vain. Ukraine are through.
***GROUP SEVEN***
-Serbia and their kidnapped Americans are going to the World Cup.
-France with their stirring performance this weekend against the Faroe Islands and sexy manager are alive at least into November.
***GROUP EIGHT***
-Italy are through with their team of old men and young Americans. Now someone just get Cannavaro some OFF!
-Ireland have secured a second place finish with 17 points through nine matches.
***GROUP NINE***
-Holland clinched months ago. Seriously.
-Norway finished second in the little group, but they need some outrageous doings in Group One (Basically, the Norwegians need Hungary to finish second, which is nearly impossible, and have them do it without scoring more than a goal or two. Ain’t happenin.’)
In brief:
Denmark, Germany, Spain, England, Serbia, Italy, and Holland have secured seven of UEFA’s 13 World Cup places. Switzerland is a pretty good bet to book their ticket coming from Group Two. Either Slovakia or Slovenia will win Group Three
Realistically, I think we’re looking at (clinched) Russia, Bosnia, France, Ireland, (projected) Slovakia/Slovenia, Ukraine, Portugal, and Greece as the eight nations to fight it out for the four remaining slots.
Game on, Wayne!
It’s never too early in the day for an Arturs Irbe reference. Good lord.
Group 9 should be ashamed of themselves for collectively sucking so horribly. Netherlands excluded, of course.
Every time I read GD, I thought of “Goddamn” instead of Goal Differential, things are still comically comprehendible.
Apparently FIFA are making rumblings about changing the World Cup seeding process, making it based mostly on the world rankings. If this is true, and it probably isn’t, the US would get a seed if Switzerland and France don’t make it. So come on Israel!
I thought the argies were ahead of us in the rankings too? Frankly I’d rather get the second spot in sa’s group than a seed.
It’s all very speculative obviously, and will probably amount to nothing, but the thinking is, when the new Fifa Rankings come out, the Argies will have dropped below us, due to their poor qualifying campaign.
My favorite thing about Norway’s qualification hope is that they need previously goalless Malta to score three against Portugal.
Also, I don’t usually pimp our blog here, but I just did a post on CAF Group C that boils down to this: if Egypt beats Argentina by two goals, FIFA needs to either schedule a one-off, “winner takes all” match or decide to pick a name between the two of them out of a hat. Fun, huh?
MH, is that how the Argies are going to get in? Compete in both South American and African qualifying? I know FIFA would like to have Messi in S.A., but that seems a tad unfair.
Algeria, Argentina…is there really a difference?
Georger… was thinking similarly. Just let us draw into the group with SA or the group with NZ/Bahrain and I’ll take our chances.
Today, I will mostly be….Uruguayan.
Argentina have stayed at eighth the last three months, and if they do qualify it means they got results from their last few matches. They should not drop below a USA team which has been unimpressive against worse competition.
I don’t care what the conditions are, if you need a last-gasp winner for a result against a national side that almost withdrew from qualifying because their country’s FA was such a disaster, you’re not one of the 8-best teams in the world.
Oh no doubt, but my point is that they weren’t dropped when they were playing like dogs**t in the qualifiers, so there’s no reason to think they’ll be dropped now.
Georger…Honduras is ranked #42; Peru #91
I meant the overall group.
Barry to Gabby to Crouchie. . . what coulda been if Martin didn’t sign Heskey.
*sigh*
I really can’t figure out what I want out of the Argentina match. The Maradona schadenfruede would be oh so delicious, but if it means missing a chance to watch Messi at a World Cup, I’m really not sure.
Torres is on the bench for Spain. Motherf**k.
People that don’t look good with a mustache:
1. Mike Georger
2. Peter Crouch
@Georger
#3 White Speed Receiver
Gerrard not sitting near Owen, attaboy.
Portugal are (finally) up 1-0 on Malta, giving them a leg-up.
Elsewhere:
GROUP 1
Portugal 1, Malta 0 1st
Sweden 1, Albania 0 1st
Denmark 0, Hungary 0 1st
GROUP 2
Greece 2, Luxembourg 0 2nd
Latvia 2, Moldova 1 2nd
Switzerland 0, Israel 0 2nd
GROUP 3
Czech Republic 0, Northern Ireland 0 HT
Poland 0, Slovakia 1 1st
San Marino 0, Slovenia 1 1st
GROUP 4
Azerbaijan 1, Russia 1 FT
Germany 1, Finland 1 FT
Liechtenstein 0, Wales 1 2nd
GROUP 5
Bosnia-Hercegovina 0, Spain 4 2nd
Turkey 2, Armenia 0 2nd
Estonia 1, Belgium 0 HT
GROUP 6
Andorra 0, Ukraine 6 FT
Kazakhstan 1, Croatia 2 FT
England 1, Belarus 0 1st
GROUP 7
Lithuania 1, Serbia 1 2nd
Romania 1, Faroe Islands 0 2nd
France 1, Austria 0 1st
GROUP 8
Bulgaria 6, Cyprus 2 2nd
Ireland 0, Montenegro 0 2nd
Italy 0, Cyprus 2 2nd
Nice showing by the Eye-tals. At home no less.
for more updated scores than James T has to offer, see THE POST. Gracias.
And we’re done here, other than deciding between 1st/2nd in group 3, Poland 0 – Slovakia 1 still.
Sorry, I guess the Swiss could lose and hand first place to Greece.
Cypriot Fail.
The Swiss grit out a 0-0 with Israel, Greeks to the play offs.
Likely: so where are the updates then? Besides the three groups’ worth you likely cut and pasted from my comment?
Latvia 3-2 Moldova
Switzerland 0-0 Israel (Switzerland qualify for the World Cup)
Greece 2-1 Luxembourg (Greece make the play-offs)
Liechtenstein 0-2 Wales (Wales don’t)
Turkey 2-0 Armenia
Bosnia 2-5 Spain
Romania 3-1 Faroe Islands
Lithuania 2-1 Serbia
Ireland 0-0 Montenegro
Bulgaria 6-2 Georgia
Will there be a liveblog at 7:30?
When do we find out the UEFA play-off match-ups?
I’m thinking of a third question.
A) Efforting.
B) As soon as they figure out how to rig them.
C) We’ll provide an evasive answer.
3. Who do we not want to see more in SA? Ronaldo or Maradona?
And by “more” I mean “less.”
That’s a really tough question. I think I would less want to see Maradona at the world cup. He’s a douche-extraordinaire and I wouldn’t mind seeing him cut down a peg or two (making him a certifiable little person). But, coming with that means not seeing Messi in the World Cup along with a number of other players that I want to see play. On the other hand, Ronaldo is one of the best current players and despite his douchieness I always like to see good players play. Not qualifying wouldn’t really take him down much either. IMHO, the benefits of a WC sans Maradona far outweigh the positives.
Is there a possibility of the Argies losing tonight, firing Maradona, and then qualifying through the play-off? Then we could have Messi et al, but not the Hand of Douche.
There’s nobody in the middle..Messi and Higuain are on an island. Veron is nowhere to be found. The tactics aspect of this team is a joke.
Chile is up 1-0. Now the stakes just dropped a bit.
Bob Ley says two yellows or red carry over to WC… Wouldn’t that be applied to the next int’l match? Doesn’t get applied in a int’l friendly? (i.e. WC warmup matches)
MOVE IT UPSTAIRS!