The Draw… Sans Football Has Beens and Busty Models
When Uruguay drew 1-1 with Costa Rica last night, it closed the book on the 32-nation field for next summer’s World Cup in South Africa. Well, for everyone but the Irish.
And believe it or not, the draw for the World Cup is December 4. That’s just fifteen days away. Fifteen days! That’s about the shelf life of Elizabeth Lambert’s remaining fame.
And while the rest of the world is hand-wringing over who will play whom, we here at UF have simply dispensed with all the mystery. Yes, it’s the first ever Unprofessional Foul World Cup Mock Draw. Tidily known from now forever hence as the UFWCMD.
Play along after the jump.
[Note: After being corrected in the comments, I re-drew to correct for a couple of sloppy mistakes (doubling up a couple of CAF countries, not putting SA in Group A), so if the first dozen or so comments don't square with the groups, that's the reason. On the plus side, the second drawing is much more compelling.]
First task for the UFWCMD was to divide the teams into four pots. Using FIFA’s past guidelines, capricious as they might seem at times, this was relatively straightforward. Pick the seven best teams in the world, drop the hosts in, and presto….
We went Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Italy, Germany, Engerland, and the Dutch. The last one is the only inclusion we’d waffle on. Given FIFA’s over-reliance on results from the Pleistocene Era, Les Bleus’ win in 1998 might still be getting them World Cup brownie points. It’s part of the comedy that is soccer: A team that survives on a blatant handball gets a seed. Worse, nobody will say much about it in two weeks’ time.
After Pot 1, there is no seeding. FIFA then keeps a group from having more than two teams from Europe and more than 1 team from any other region in a group.
Pot 2 is simple then. The remaining 8 Euro teams go there. After that, we used 2006 as a model. The African and remaining CONMEBOL teams in Pot 3 (Algeria, Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Chile); then CONCACAF, Asia, and New Zealand in Pot 4 (Australia, Japan, Commie Korea, Free Korea, Honduras, Mexico, and the US of A).
While these pots aren’t seeds per se, they are definitely strata, if you figure that the African and South American teams are better than the North American and Asian teams. Few serious followers of the sport would challenge that generalization.
With the pots organized, it was time to do the draw. Yes, the fate of 32 nations was determined in my work cubicle in suburban Chicago. Awesome.
Anyway, I cut up some standard paper into same-sized slices, made four piles eight deep, then wrote a name for a country corresponding to the pot they were in. I then took eight Post-It Notes, labeled them A-H, and laid them out in the space vacated by my cubicle mate, who, fortunately for the rest of the world, left the company yesterday.
I then took the Pot 1 pile and randomly distributed the eight slips of paper over the eight Post-It notes. Repeat for Pots 2, 3, and 4. A viola… you have yourself a World Cup that looks like the following:
Group A
South Africa
Switzerland
Uruguay
Japan
Group B
Spain
Portugal
Nigeria
Australia
Group C
Netherlands
Denmark
Chile
Mexico
Group D
Italy
France
Ghana
Honduras
Group E
Argentina
Slovenia
Ivory Coast
North Korea
Group F
England
Slovakia
Paraguay
USA
Group G
Brazil
Serbia
Algeria
New Zealand
Group H
Germany
Greece
Cameroon
South Korea
A couple of notes…
1) If you need any proof this was completely random, look at Group A. True to form there is a completely unsexy group without a single power in it. That, my friends, is the hallmark of legitimacy. Of course as someone pointed out, any group with the hosts will probably meet this criteria.
2) Groups B, C, and D all look kind of awesome.
3) The US gets to play Engerland, but it’s again in a group it has a shot to get out of. It just outplayed Slovakia in Slovakia (although failed to get the result). And ask any American if the knockouts hinged on a one-off with Paraguay, they’d probably take that.
4) There is no 4 on the redraw.
We’ll bookmark this and check back for the actual draw, which we will liveblog the holy heck out of. Jesus, we cannot wait for next summer. Let the hype begin.
PR, play the games by flipping a coin, lets face it, with s**te refs around you may as well no?
That’s a separate post. But the coin flips don’t happen until the knock outs. Spoiler Alert: England still goes out in the quarters on PKs.
I think group B would be pretty tough too in addition to G. In those two groups, I could see any of the four advancing given how results shape-up — I could also see both groups ending with all four on: 1-1-1.
And we would not finish 2nd in that group. We’d lose one and tie one against Greece and Algeria. Sorry, I’m a USMNT pessimist
I was actually penciling in a draw against the Argies for the USMNT. Sounds ridiculous, but I’m banking on Maradona still being in charge.
I got an awesome draw at random:
A: Spain, Portugal, Uruguay, North Korea
B: England, France, Chile, Mexico
C: Bafana, Slovenia, Nigeria, Ooo-Sa
D: Argentina, Greece, Cote d’Ivoire, Allwhites
E: Brazil, Slovakia, Cameroon, South Korea
F: Holland, Serbia, Ghana, Timmy and the COnvicts
G: Italy, Denmark, Algeria, Japan
H: Germany, Switzerland, Paraguay, Honduras
I think your Group D is impossible. You say: FIFA then keeps a group from having more than two teams from Europe and more than 1 team from any other region in a group. But then:
Group D
South Africa (CAF)
Serbia
Ghana (CAF)
Australia
Even though SA is seeded, they still shouldn’t be paired with another African team.
Strange Keith… Still don’t see a clear GoD, but Engerland again draw into the hardest group. Or maybe I’m giving France way too much credit.
Group F probably has the most watchable matches in it.
Shit Jonathan, you’re right. You have to do what FIFA did last time and make a Special Pot for Serbia and Montenegro. They were set aside to draw against one of Brazil, Argentina, or Mexico (the 3 non-Euro seeds).
In this case you’d pull aside the three CONMEBOL teams and make sure one of them draws into the South African Group.
I can either redraw, or just swap out, say, Chile and Ghana… which would make Group E pretty awesome with 3 teams for 2 spots. Additionally, assuming all three paste the Kiwis, I’m pretty sure that you discount that result for all of the teams in determining who advances (not sure if that’s still in place, but it was used at the last-but-one Euro).
I just love all the rivalries I got out of it: England-France, the Iberian peninsula, and the rekindling of Germany-Switzerland, which was quite entertaining in 2006.
I see D as the toughest. True, Maradona’s been crap, but Argentina’s still really talented, Greece are a tough win if boring, and CIV is an incredibly talented team. NZ will be lucky and glad for a point, but that’s the strongest three, I think.
Agree that my F has the most entertainment value. C is (of course) the most deceptively tricky group, while I think that group G gives Japan their best hope of making the knockouts.
I don’t think they’d have a unique pot 5 like they did for S&M in 2006. I think they would simply do song and dance, where they go to draw Pot 3, they would draw the country, and then determine what eligible pots that country could be drawn in to, and only put those groups in the big bowl of balls.
Same would be true with Argies/Brasil when it comes to drawing the other 3 CONMEBOL teams.
Only comment is that you left out that South Africa is automatically Group A. In all draws, South Africa will be A1. That’s because they play the opening match and that match is A1 v. A2.
Thus, Group A will always have South Africa.
Oh s**t… That makes my Group C invalid as well with 2 CONMEBOL teams. Dammit, I knew it seemed to easy.
I’ve also been informed that South Africa is necessarily in Group A, which is more of a semantic issue as I can just call whatever group they land in ‘Group A’.
I’ll redraw and update.
The GROUP OF DEATH will consist, IMO, of a selection of the following:
Pot 1: Any teams except S.A.
Pot 2: Portugal; Netherlands/France; maybe the Swiss?
Pot 3: Paraguay; Chile; Ivory Coast; maybe Cameroon?
Pot 4: Mexico; USA; Aussies, only for their good run in the last cup.
The Group of Ease will consist of:
Pot 1: South Africa
Pot 2: Slovenia; maybe Serbia?
Pot 3: Algeria; Nigeria
Pot 4: Honduras; North Korea; New Zealand; South Korea? Japan?
So obviously Spain or Brasil will fall into the latter. (Obviously taking SA’s place.)
Crap. My group C is also invalid. Swap Chile and Nigeria, and you get:
B: England, France, Nigeria, Mexico
C: Bafana, Slovenia, Chile, Ooo-Sa
Which makes B the GoD, and gives the US a much easier ride to knockouts for Bradley to cock up.
Jonathan is definitely right about South Africa can’t be paired with another African nation. That’s one reason why it would be nice if the three CONCACAF nations end up in Pot 3, b/c it would mean that the US has a 33% shot at getting South Africa.
No matter how you square it, South Africa’s group is going to be relatively easy. There can only be one UEFA team in it, no African team and a “lesser” South American team.
Banjax, it’s also worth noting that such weights for the hosts are what may have seen every host advance to at least the Second Round in every tournament.
Redraw is done and makes for a much better summer… On paper at least.
As a US fan, I’d take that as about as good (barring a draw of S. Africa) as you can get. And there would be some terrific matchups in the opening round: Italy-France and Spain-Portugal right off the bat. Argies would have it pretty easy, though I’m sure Maradona would find a way to screw up even that draw.
Nothing like debating completely fabricated scenarios that have about a million different variation possibilities.
Oh, here’s my guess:
A: South Africa; Serbia; Algeria; US
B: Italy; Greece; Nigeria; Honduras
C: Netherlands; Slovenia; Chile; South Korea
D: Brasil; France; Ghana; Japan
E: Argies; Portugal; Cameroon; New Zealand
F: Germany; Denmark; Ivory Coast; Australia
G: England; Swiss; Uruguay; North Korea
H: Spain; Slovakia; Paraguay; Mexico
US wins Group A, draws Nigeria in first round and gets to Quarters where they lose 1-0 to Brasil. Brasil beats England in the Semis and Spain in the Finals to win it all.
Did my own with CONCACAF/Africa in Pot 3 simply for ease and then used random.org to draw:
A: Bafana, Slovenia, Yanks, Paraguay
B: Brazil, Swiss, Cameroon, Darkest Korea
C: Spain, Slovaks, Nigeria, Hyundai Corporation
D: Germany, Serbia, North American Italy (Mexico), Socceroos
E: Holland, Ronaldo, Ghana, Chile
F: Maradona, Denmark, Algeria, Kiwis
G: European Mexico (Italy), Cheater McCheatersons, Honduras, Uruguay
H: Engerrrland, Gree(yawn)ce, Ivory Coast, Japan
Of course, I’ve neglected to account for UEFA/FIFA bias and the hand of Sepp in the draw, so the US will probably get a draw in group G. ;)
I did a random grouping myself, and accounting for two regions not getting the same group got the following group
Group A:
England
Slovakia
Algeria
Australia
Group B:
France
Holland
Ghana
South Korea
Group C:
Spain
Switzerland
Cameroon
Mexico
Group D:
Germany
Serbia
Paraguay
North Korea
Group E:
South Africa
Denmark
Uruguay
Japan
Group F:
Argentina
Portugal
Ivory Coast
Honduras
Group G:
Italy
Slovenia
Chile
USA
Group H:
Brazil
Greece
Nigeria
New Zealand
Group F is undoubtedly the Group of Death, while Group B also looks delicious
[...] this link: Unprofessional Foul Share and [...]
[...] from: Unprofessional Foul Share and [...]
[...] more: Unprofessional Foul Share and [...]
[...] the original post: Unprofessional Foul Share and [...]
[...] the original post: Unprofessional Foul Share and [...]
[...] Unprofessional Foul Share and [...]