The Race For Fourth

Will Liverpool put this game in the rear view mirror?

Liverpool’s bungling blunder at Wigan on Monday had our own JT a little sad. I was quite concerned for a while; would he make it through the night? There were many emails and it was touch and go for a few hours.

Apparently, according to James and a few gloaters we know (you know who you are) Liverpool were done, finished for the season. The Wigan escapade had been the nail in the coffin. Fourth place and qualification for the Champions League was gone. Hope was lost.

Hmmm, I’m not so sure! Weren’t we saying that about Arsenal’s title challenge a month ago?

After the jump, a look at the runners and riders with Champions League qualification in their sights. Lets see if we can’t cheer old Jimmy T up a little shall we?

First of all. As of this morning, this is the situation with regards to the coveted 4th spot.

4:Spurs – played 28 – 49 points
5: Man City – played 27 – 49 points
6: Liverpool – played 29 – 48 points
7: Aston Villa – played 26 – 45 points

As you can see, Liverpool have played 2 more games than Man City and 3 more than Villa. Alright, let’s check out the fixtures and predict some results!

Spurs

Tottenham have 10 games remaining and they are as follows:

Man City – A (TBA)
Blackburn – H
Stoke – A
Portsmouth – H
Sunderland – A
Arsenal – H
Chelsea – H
Man United – A
Bolton – H
Burnley – A

Right, so 3 games against relegation-threatened sides and the top 3. Hmmm, Well I cannot see Spurs beating Arsenal, Man U or Chelsea. Maybe a point in the North London derby. Stoke away is also a very tough fixture; I’ll give Spurs a draw there. Sunderland away is also a tricky tie — the Mackems have lost just twice at the Stadium of Light all season — that’s a point. Burnley on the last day? Ouch; If the Clarets are still in with a shout of survival, that will be carnage. Let’s assume. Pompey, Bolton and Blackburn are home bankers and I’m calling the trip (yet to be re-arranged) to Eastlands as a draw. Spurs also have an eye on the FA Cup and that will prove distracting, so lets give Spurs 13 points from their remaining 9 games.

Manchester City

11 games left for Mancini’s men:

Spurs – H (TBA)
Sunderland – A
Fulham – A
Everton – H
Wigan – H
Burnley – A
Birmingham – H
Man United – H
Arsenal – A
Villa – H
West Ham – A

Man City are not exactly on top form, Mancini has not turned out quite as expected, and the team has shown a lot of fighting talk and a lot less fight; Before the win at Chelsea, City had won just 1 of the previous 6. I’m going to lock in home wins against Wigan and Birmingham and an away win at Burnley. West Ham on the last day will be hard, if (like Spurs at Burnley) West Ham are still in trouble at the bottom. I’m calling that a draw and also giving Man City a point at Sunderland, a point at home to a resurgent Everton, away at Fulham, home to Spurs and a point at home to Villa. Defeats to Man United and Arsenal. Totaled up, that’s 15 points.

Aston Villa

Villa’s Premier League form has been impressive recently, so let’s check out their last 12 games.

Stoke – A
Wigan – A
Wolves – H
Sunderland – H
Chelsea – A
Bolton – A
Portsmouth – A
Birmingham – H
Man City – A
Blackburn – H
Hull – A (TBA)
Everton – H (TBA)

By far the easiest run-in of the four but they do have an eye on another Wembley final in the form of the FA Cup. I’m giving Martin O’Neill’s men wins at home to Sunderland, Blackburn and Wolves. I am also handing them wins at Portsmouth and Wigan, draws at Man City, Hull, in the derby v Birmingham, home to Everton and at Bolton, and defeats to Stoke at the Britannia and Chelsea at the Bridge. That’s 20 points.

Liverpool

Portsmouth – H
Man United – A
Sunderland – H
Birmingham – A
Fulham – H
West Ham – H
Burnley – A
Chelsea – H
Hull – A

Liverpool’s form has been spotty but I think the Wigan result will be a one off during the run-in; their schedule is kind and they will pick up quite a few points. Before Wigan they had lost just 2 in the previous 11 and there is no reason to think they can’t recreate similar form. They will likely beat Portsmouth, Sunderland, Fulham and West Ham at home. I’ll give them a point against Chelsea as they always raise their game against top 3 sides. A win at Hull, and a draw at Burnley. Defeats at Birmingham, and at Old Trafford. That’s 17 points.

Let’s add it all up and project the final totals, BUT before I do, hand on heart, there was no number crunching. I gave these sides the results I thought they’d get based on form, previous results, and opposition home/away form doing so in the order above, looking at Liverpool’s fixtures last.

4 – Liverpool – 65 points
4 – Aston Villa – 65 points
6 – Man City – 64 points
7 – Spurs – 62 points

Wow, Villa and Liverpool tied. At this point in time, today, they also have the same goal differential, sitting on 16!

Well, If I’m right, every goal will count and it’ll be a very exciting run-in. So there IS hope for Liverpool fans and for our James T. Get IN!

Do you agree with me? Have at it below.