World Cup 2010 Previews: Spain

Iniesta makes defenders look silly

For our penultimate preview, we come to the defending European Champions and joint favorites to lift the Jules Rimet trophy on July 11.

Country: Spain
Nickname: La Furia Roja (The Red Fury)
Coach: Vicente Del Bosque
Luis Aragones and his….er…..old fashioned ways was finally put out to pasture following the Euro 2008 triumph. In came Del Bosque, who managed the Galacticos v 1.0 featuring Figo and Zidane to a pair of Champions League trophies and two La Liga trophies around the turn of the century.

Spain come into the tournament as joint favorites at 4-1, alongside Brazil. Its a big turnaround from Spain’s usual reputation as under-achievers in the World Cup, but their win at Euro 2008 changed everything. Throw in perhaps the best and deepest squad in the tournament, 12 straight wins, just one loss in three years (to a Bob Bradley coached team!), and it’s easy to imagine Spain winning the whole thing in a month’s time.

Squad:
Goalkeepers:
Iker Casillas (Real Madrid), Jose Reina (Liverpool), Victor Valdes (Barcelona)

Defenders:
Raul Albiol (Real Madrid, Alvaro Arbeloa (Real Madrid), Joan Capdevila (Villarreal), Carlos Marchena (Valencia), Gerard Pique (Barcelona), Carles Puyol (Barcelona), Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid)

Midfielders:
Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid), Sergi Busquets (Barcelona), Cesc Fabregas (Arsenal), Andres Iniesta (Barcelona), Javi Martinez (Athletic Bilbao), David Silva (Valencia), Xavi (Barcelona)

Forwards:
Jesus Navas (Sevilla), Juan Manuel Mata (Valencia), Pedro Rodriguez (Barcelona), Fernando Llorente (Athletic Bilbao), Fernando Torres (Liverpool), David Villa (Barcelona)
[I would actually only call the latter trio legit strikers, but whatever].

Fixtures(times ET)
Spain vs Switzerland – June 16, 10a – Durban
Spain vs. Honduras – June 21, 2.30p – Johannesburg
Chile vs. Spain – June 25, 2.30p – Pretoria

Team Base:
North West University Campus, Potchefstroom. Spain forsake the usual luxury hotel/lodge compound for a university town around an hour’s drive south of Johannesburg. According to Yahoo, “the Spanish chose Potchefstroom, which is around 1,350 metres (4,430 feet) above sea level, partly as a place where the players can practice at altitude and partly because of the quality of the North West University facilities. Some 1,000 top athletes come here every year to use its High Performance Institute of Sport (HPI), and former patrons include British Olympians Linford Christie and Paula Radcliffe…The new sports village where the 70-odd Spanish players, coaching staff, officials and two chefs will stay, opened in April and cost the university 45 million rand ($5.8 million), according to Annette Combrink, a former rector and head of the local World Cup organising committee.”

World Cup History:
Before 2008, Spain’s resume in major competitions was rather thin, with just a sole European Championship (held at home) in 1964 to their credit. Their history in the the World Cup is one of consistent under performance. They have appeared in 12 World Cups, and their best finish was fourth in Brazil 1950. In 1982 Spain hosted the tournament and was judged by many to have a chance to win, but they exited at the second group stage after losing to West Germany and drawing with England. More recently, Spain made the quarterfinals in 2002 but were defeated by the Koreans (thanks to some dodgy officiating). In 2006 they lost to eventual Champions finals choke artists France in the round of 16.

Road to South Africa:
Easy peasy; ten wins out of ten, and a plus 23 goal difference from a group containing Bosnia, Turkey, Belgium, Estonia, and Armenia. Not exactly a murder’s row, but at least Spain didn’t need to go to the second round (or use their hands) to book a place in the finals.

Recent Form:
Spain have won 12 in a row and 45 of 48 overall, with their only defeat coming in last summer’s Confederations Cup to the United States. They beat Argentina in a friendly last November and France on road in March, but Spain’s form had been uneven in World Cup tuneup matches. They only beat the Saudis 3-2, and scraped out a 1-nil win over South Korea, before drubbing Poland 6-0 on Tuesday. The patchy form against the Saudis and Korea can be explained by Del Bosque’s use of experimental formations and second choice players. With something like a first choice lineup and formation on Tuesday night, the result was more to the liking of the Spanish supporters.

What the media say:
There is something of a split amongst the journalists, with most of the English language press predicting good things, but a small amount of grumbling coming out of Spain about Del Bosque’s tactics and tinkering.

BBC had an article praising “Spain’s transformation from a perennial underachiever to a ruthless winning machine,” while the Guardian’s man in Espana Sid Lowe has been effusive in his praise.

The New York Times ran an amusingly hyperbolic piece in their blog on Tuesday–pre 6-0 beatdown of Poland– fretting about Spain’s late arrival in South Africa (they didn’t touch down until this morning). “La Furia Roja has little time, and its fans at home are growing increasingly anxious,” the post noted.

“Spain is dealing with economic problems, including mounting public debt and 20 percent unemployment.” This scaremongering didn’t stop the Grey Lady from picking Spain to win it all today, using the same complementary words about Spain that we usually hear about Arsenal or Barcelona. “Spain, at long last bearing the fruits of youth tournaments that blended rather than separated Catalan, Madrid, Basque and other regional factions, shows there is still room in today’s far more disciplined game for creativity and style,” the NYT slobbered. “Perhaps its time has come, if only it can believe in itself.”

Tactics/Style:
Everyone thinks they remember Spain’s 4-3-3 from Euro 2008, anchored by Marcos Senna, although Aragones’s side actually played with two strikers quite often, until Villa got hurt. Del Bosque has been using a variety of formations in warm up matches, from a 4-5-1 to a 4-4-2 to a 4-1-4-1 to a 4-3-3. In the recent dismantling of Poland, Spain came out in a 4-3-3 with Busquets in a holding role, Xavi and Xabi Alonso in more attacking roles from the midfield, Iniesta at left wing, Silva at right wing, and Villa up top.

It’s likely that we will see some version of this formation in the group stages, especially since Torres is still recovering fitness and Group H should be a cakewalk. Against tougher opposition in the knock-out rounds, as Zonal Marking suggests, it’s likely that Del Bosque will go with the very trendy 4-2-3-1, with Busquets and Xabi Alonso sitting in front of the back four, while Xavi runs the attacking midfield alongside Iniesta and Silva, with Villa or Torres up top.

But wait, what about two strikers, you say?

Frankly Spain have played better lately with just one man up top, as evidenced by the Euro 2008 final against Germany (yeah, it was a dour win, but a win nonetheless). The only time we should see both strikers together is in the late stages of the game where Spain needs a goal. Del Bosque has a ton of other options if he wants to play a more flat 4-5-1, or even a 4-1-4-1, as he can insert Cesc as another creative midfielder or use Mata, Navas, or Pedro to add width. Poor old Fernando Llorente, who scored 23 goals in 50 games for Athletic Bilbao this year, is number three in the pecking order at striker and unlikely to see much playing time absent injury.

The defense is more settled, with Iker Casillas in goal, Capdevila and Arbeloa at fullback (with license to make attacking runs) and Puyol and Pique in the middle. Barring injury, the back five should be same throughout the tournament.

Key players:
Xavi, CM – Barcelona
The Blaugrana lynchpin recently re-upped with mes de un club until 2016 (do you like the bench, Cesc?). He is Spain’s midfield playmaker, and should play a similar role in this tournament that Andrea Pirlo did for Italy in 2006.

Fernando Torres, ST – Liverpool
Not much to be said about the soon-to-be-ex-Liverpool man. He’s been fighting injuries and might not even start most games if Del Bosque opts for one striker. But he does have class.

David Villa, ST – Barcelona: Just moved from Valencia to the Nou Camp. His strike rate with the national team is ridiculous, and he was the top scorer at Euro 2008.

Of the names you might not know, Javi Martinez of Athletic Bilbao, rumored to be on his way to Madrid, is a tremendous tactical player in the midfielder. Jesus Navas and Jaun Mata both offer pace and creativity from wide spaces and could turn a match with pace in the late stages. Busquets is taking over for Marcus Senna as the team’s destroyer, but he has big shoes to fill given the latter’s performance two years ago.

Question Marks:
Will Del Bosque use some sort of a rotation system?
Rafa gave it a bad name at Liverpool, but the amount of talent at the disposal of Del Bosque means that he is very likely to rotate players. Especially, as ZM notes, because Spain are starting the tournament so late and will potentially have to play 7 games in 26 days. It’s a high-quality problem when you are trying to find playing time for someone like Cesc Fabregas, and the reality is that Spain’s bench would probably be among the favorites to win the tournament by themselves.

The rotation system also makes sense when you consider the absurd amount of games that many of the Spain squad have played this year, and the fact that many of the first-choice players (in midfield, especially) have been battling some injury niggles.

How to juggle Torres and Villa?
The uncomfortable reality is that like Lampard and Gerrard, the Spanish striking duo have never really found much chemistry when playing for La Furia. Starting both means pushing Villa further away from goal, and changing the shape of the team to accommodate two strikers by removing a defensive midfielder and relying on fullbacks for width.

Torres’s strike rate with Spain is decent with 24 goals in 74 appearances, but Villa’s is an astounding 38 in 58 (he was the leading scorer in Euro 2008 despite missing the final). Throw in the Liverpool man’s fragility, and the choice seems pretty obvious. Marca, though, ran an online poll and found most Spaniards favored starting both, formation be damned.

Will Iniesta, Torres, and Fabergas stay healthy?
All three have been dealing with injuries, and Iniesta reportedly suffered a thigh strain in Spain’s match against Poland. If he can’t go, look for Cesc (himself recovering from injury) to take his place in midfield, or possibly one of the younger wide players. Torres came on and scored on Tuesday night, but the man is made of glass.  Xavi supposedly played most of the season with a muscle tear, but he appears to be ready to go for the World Cup. The injury issues are one reason with Del Bosque is likely to employ a rotation strategy, at least in the group stage.

Final thoughts/UF Prediction:
For Spain, its time to put to rest years of World Cup frustrations. The golden generation that won Euro 2008 is in even fuller bloom two years later, and nearly all the key parts to the team are coming off good club seasons. This is in my view the best, deepest, and most talented squad in the tournament. In Del Bosque they have a proven tactician, and they have shown the ability to change and adapt to their opponents. Ironically, the rest of the world, in an effort to be more like Barca (from whom the national side has swiped 7 players  and its basic tactics), has been moving towards playing like La Furia does. But Spain already do it, have been doing it for years, and do it very well.

Group H should be a cakewalk, with only the Chile game likely to cause trouble (especially since Spain will likely have already qualified for the next round). In the round of 16, their likely foe is either Portugal or the Ivory Coast, both of whom are inferior sides. The quarterfinal match, if its against an on-the-decline Italy, should be relatively straightforward. The semifinal could be against Argentina, Germany, or even France (if they slip up in the group stage). Again, Spain would be favored against any of those sides. The final might see a matchup with Brazil (best game), England (best drama) or Holland (best for tactics geeks).

It’s a knock-out tournament and anything can happen, as they themselves proved last summer in the Confederations Cup, but I like Spain to lift the Jules Rimet trophy on July 11th in Johannesburg.