The Pundit: Why Are We Not Seeing Any Goals?

HOORAY!

I’ve waited long enough. Despite the fact that some exciting teams (Spain, and theoretically, Chile) are yet to play their first game, I cannot restrain myself much longer. We’re on record for the lowest-scoring World Cup in history, and it’s confusing all of us.

Before I begin, I’ll say that I don’t think SA2010 will set that record — after all, we’re not even 1/4 done with this tournament — but I’ll try to cut through some of the doomsday bulls**t being spun by soccer-skeptical mainstream pundits.

And yes, I totally realize I’m thinking way deeper into this than is probably necessary, and that some of these are a little, shall we say, speculative, but s**t, that’s what The Pundit is for.

Environmental Factors Are Of Mild Concern
Look, I’ll poke fun at the Jabulani and even blame it for a weird bounce or spin here and there. However, I certainly won’t attribute everything wrong with this tournament to some ball made with” eight thermally bonded, three-dimensional panels.” Well, maybe I will if it keeps bothering Anonsters.

The grass, we’ve looked at too. It’s a weird natural/synthetic mix that causes the odd bobble or two. As for altitude, yeah, it affects overall recovery rates during physical exertion, causes the ball to drift a little bit more in the thinning air, etc. etc. etc.

We’re More Worried About The Players
Even with a Jabulani pinging around, we’re a little amazed at the lackluster ball control skills exhibited by several teams. Wayward passing — both short- and long-range — lack of quick pass-and-move soccer, and several long, mazy runs ended by a miscontrolled ball. It’s troubling, but probably more about the nerves than anything else.

The World Cup is as big as it gets if you’re a soccer player (well, maybe not for Benoit Assou-Ekotto, but you get my drift). As such, all eyes are on the players and their every move is telegraphed, photographed, charted and dissected more closely than the hanging chads of the 2000 Election. Mistakes get you unwelcome attention, and sometimes, unwelcome consequences (see: Escobar, Andres).

The simple fact is we’re only 14 games into the full 64, and things will get better from a skill perspective. However, will an uptick in ball control really make a difference?

The Mourinho Approach Is Pervasive
Jose Mourinho, in imitating similarly defensive, dynamic styles championed by some of the game’s greatest managers, has really helped to change the face of soccer over the last 4-5 years. With Inter, he managed to win the treble by letting opponents have the vast majority of the ball. It’s a counterintuitive system, but, possession aside, his defensive-minded soccer is now en vogue across the world.

Though we’re seeing plenty of different formations at the World Cup, it’s clear that everyone has finally caught on to the importance of the defensive midfielder and has thus stuck two in the middle as the default.

Holland have de Jong and van Bommel, USA use Clark and Bradley, Germany employ Khedira and Schweinsteiger. There’s Toulalan/Diaby winning the ball in the French midfield, Diego Perez and Egidio Arevalo for Uruguay, and Eyong Enoh with Jean Il Makoun for Cameroon. Even in a 4-3-3, there are multiple ball-winning, defense-first midfielders; Pedro Mendes/Raul Meireles in Portugal, and the Ivory Coast had Yaya Toure, Cheick Tiote and Emmanuel Eboue stalking and stifling the middle third of the pitch.

Heck, even the mighty Brazil did what Dunga prefers, and that’s the two CDMs in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo.

So you have an overwhelming number of defense-minded midfielders deployed across the tournament, outnumbering the stylish No. 10s trying to find gaps to exploit. The balance of the game has shifted to this organizational imperative, with fewer midfielders allowed to coast along without adhering to protecting the back four in one way or another.

Not only that, but the emphasis within the team dynamic has changed. Less emphasis is placed on the singular genius, unlike the turn of the 21st century when the game’s best solo players won trophies by the boatloads for their teams. It’s about the collective. It’s about the system over the individual, and finding the players that fit.

As I mentioned in the 2nd episode of the Foulcast, there was a coaching drill used by Italy’s Arrigo Sacchi in the 1980s whereby he took his five defensive players (incl. goalie) and ten best attacking players and challenged the ten to score. He gave them fifteen minutes, and they couldn’t breach the goal. An organized side

As such, we’ll see success in 2010 for those teams that play smart, cohesive football. The team that has the star power isn’t necessarily it.

No Way Globalization Has An Impact, Is There?
The internet, advances in team scouting, and the sheer proliferation of players from country to country over the course of their careers have invariably led to less and less disparity between national teams.

Almost all WC squads have a majority of players currently making a living outside of their native country (even the reclusive DPRK have handful of players operating away from Pyongyang). This spread of players not only allows squads to learn from the best players in those leagues they do play in, but it serves as first-hand scouting on the foibles and strengths/weaknesses of stars they’d potentially face at a World Cup, a shared knowledge pool to be used in these big tournaments. Not only that, but the constant exposure to top quality players in leagues away from home improves ones own skill sets and awareness.

As it stands, only three countries brought squads to the World Cup consisting entirely of players from their own domestic leagues: Germany, Italy, and England, and all of those players on those squads benefit from playing in domestic leagues (Bundesliga, Serie A, and the EPL) that thrive thanks to the influx and staying power of the world’s best soccer talents.

The free flow of players around the globe means that teams like Hungary, 1954 or Denmark of the late-80s can no longer sneak up on opponents, because chances are that their opponents are already well aware of what they can accomplish. It’s a wild possibility, but I’d daresay that continued exposure to Emile Heskey in the EPL would enable Tim Howard to know what kind of save he’d need to make.