The Six Match Theory

Wondered How This Guy Hung Around So Long

It was mentioned on a recent Sound of Football podcast, so I thought it might be worth examining to check it’s worthiness. And yes–listening to another site’s podcast made me feel unclean and traitorous.

This month’s water bill will be massive after the time I spent in the shower rinsing off the guilt.

The idea raised was that the lifespan of a Premiership manager’s current position is roughly a half dozen matches. When a squad undergoes a rough patch of form, alarm bells sound for club directors and owners and change in the dugout can be expected if rot is not stopped by the 6th consecutive match. This theory was used to explain why gaffers like Arsene Wenger and Alex Ferguson are still with their respective clubs for such a long period when the average Prem manager lasts less than two years.

So let’s look at the gaffers sacked this Premiership season and put the Six Match Theory to the test. This being a third rate site, it will be even less precise than an apple falling on Newton’s head.

Newcastle United didn’t even allow Chris Hughton to get to the 6th match this season–Mike Ashley shockingly sacked the gaffer after the fifth one. Following a solid 5-1 thrashing of Sunderland on Halloween and a 1-0 victory of Arsenal, the Magpies went on a 5 match stretch that included losses to Blackburn, Bolton, and West Brom Albion. Despite having drawn Chelsea in that stretch, 2 points from 5 matches was apparently too little for a newly-promoted side, so enter the Pardew.

Baggies Think Saggy More Sexy

The six matches preceding Roberto Di Matteo’s sacking at West Brom did include a 3-2 win over Blackpool mid-January, but only a draw to Wigan accompanied losses to Fulham, Blackburn, and both clubs from Manchester. Perhaps for Baggies’ Chair Jeremy Peace, a previous 6 match run of stink  in the month of November that had seen Di Matteo keep his job was being addressed retroactively.

That, or the mouth-watering prospect of having Roy Hodgson manage the club was too much to pass up.

Speaking of Woy, prior to being sacked at Anfield, his six matches were inconsistent in the extreme–and certainly justified a rough patch for a club like Liverpool. Losses to Tottenham, Wolverhampton, and Newcastle were accompanied by wins over Villa and Bolton. His final match–a loss away to Blackburn–apparently was the final straw for NESV after seeing 8000 fewer supporters for the Merseyside club show up for the Bolton win.

Draws in Europa League play to the likes of Steaua Bucharest and Utrecht–along with a fear that Hodgson would catch Anfield on fire from the friction he caused by rubbing his face so furiously–might have also played a role in his departure.

Of course, the one gaffer sacked this season whose form doesn’t necessarily comport to the Six Match Theory is Sam Allardyce. In his six matches leading up to his shock dismissal, Big Sam managed 3 wins over clubs one would expect Rovers could win while only taking losses to clubs where the best they could hope for is a draw.

Perhaps shipping 7 against United was too much for the chicken pluckers to stomach, but it seems even the Six Match Theory would not have predicted Big Sam’s dismissal at Ewood Park.

This theory might go to explain why some managers are still with the same clubs despite being in a relegation battle throughout. Avram Grant’s West Ham began the season with 4 losses, but Match #6 was  a win over Tottenham. The Hammers have had mediocre 6 match runs for the remainder with several draws mixed in with a few losses, but otherwise, Grant’s lads have found a way to break up the funk.

That FA Cup run seems to have helped a bit too.

That Way to the Hole

Mick McCarthy’s another manager who was saved on Match 6. During a rough part of Wolverhampton’s schedule that had Wolves play and lose to Villa, Wigan, Chelsea, and Manchester United (in the Carling Cup), Mick found a way to put two in the hole over Citeh on Match #6 in the run to break the skid.

Wolves followed up that Citeh victory with another poor run, but Mick’s lads got him off the hook by Match 5. Other shoddy patches have been punctuated by shock victories over the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester United.

I guess when you hand Sir Alex his first loss of the season, you get to hang around a bit longer.

Now, why is any of this being mentioned? Well, looking at Arsenal’s recent stink of a stretch, the recent draw to WBA was Match 6 in a run that saw a tidy 5-0 win over Leyton Orient in the FA Cup, but cup losses to Birmingham, Barcelona, and Manchester United. A win over Stoke and a goalless draw with Sunderland is what’s been mustered in league play during that period.

So, Wenger’s still around, but can the expiration date be approaching if form doesn’t change with the next couple matches with Blackburn and Blackpool? And what of Harry Redknapp and Tottenham? Following the win over Milan in the Champions League, Spurs fans haven’t seen a win and witnessed a choke-job of a 3-1 loss to Blackpool.

Oh, and Spurs haven’t scored in their last two matches either. Yeah, the Bernabeu might be a nightmare.

Overall, though, it seems that the Six Match Theory does hold a bit of weight. Those managers that are able to break up the monotony of suck tend to hang around longer–even if they don’t always lead their sides to glory. For those managers that have led their clubs to glory, perhaps they get a bit more rope before the noose is tightened.

In the cases of Arsenal and Tottenham, it looks like the theory’s about to be put to the test again.