River Plate on the Brink: Relegation Madness

Almeyda and JJ López are the face of River's failure.

Break out your calculators: it’s relegation weekend in Argentina. Now, normally I wouldn’t bother you with such goings-on. A couple teams come up from La B, two crappy clubs go down. Who cares.

This year, though, River Plate is in the mix. The richest, most successful club in league history (33 titles) is in 16th place in Argentina’s convoluted relegation table. River Plate has never been relegated in its 110 year existence, joining Boca Juniors and Independiente as the only clubs that have never been condemned to second division fútbol.

The fact that Los Millos are even facing the threat of relegation is remarkable considering that the Descenso system is in place specifically to protect them and the other big clubs from being relegated.

Here’s how it works: you add up the number of points each club has earned over the last three seasons, then divide that by the number of matches played. At the end of each season, the two teams at the bottom are relegated, and the two teams at the top of the second division are promoted. Then, the 17th and 18th place teams have to play a two match playoff against the 3rd and 4th place teams from the second division. This playoff is called La Promoción (from here on, Promo for short).

In any given year, up to four clubs could switch divisions. The system favors clubs with good track records who’ve been in Primera longer, while newly-promoted clubs have the hardest time getting a good average score to avoid the drop zone.

River has only managed a dismal 141 points in 113 matches over the last three seasons, which puts them slightly above Olimpo and Huracán in the relegation table. You might think they’re safe, but it gets more complicated than that.

Tigre is one spot above River in the relegation standings. They need a win against Argentinos Juniors to secure top flight soccer next season, but even in losing they could stay up if River and Olimpo also lose. If Tigre manages a draw, and River and Olimpo win, there would be a three way tie in the standings which would force a separate round robin playoff to determine which club has to play Belgrano in the Promo.

River can’t stay out of the Promo with a win against Lanús tomorrow. They need Olimpo to lose, and then they’ll stay up regardless of their own result. However, if Olimpo wins, they’ll have to beat Lanús, and watch for Tigre’s result. If Tigre wins, River will face Olimpo to determine who has to play San Martin. If Tigre loses, River is safe.

Fortunately for River, Lanús have nothing to play for since Vélez already wrapped up the title.

Is your head spinning yet?

River fans put all their money on black.

Olimpo is playing Quilmes, who are dead last. They needs a win to even have a chance at avoiding the Promo. Any other result would force them into the playoff of doom.

Huracán needs to beat Independiente to avoid relegation, play the Promo, and condemn Gimnasia de La Plata and Quilmes to direct relegation. Huracán could get some help from Independiente’s manager, Antonio “Turco” Mohamed, who was one of Huracán’s greatest players.

Gimnasia needs to beat Boca Juniors at home and hope Huracán loses in order to avoid relegation and sneak into the Promo. If they draw with Boca, they’ll need Quilmes to lose or draw, as well as a loss from Huracán in order to force a match against them to avoid direct relegation.

Quilmes is fairly well screwed, but a win against Olimpo, combined with losses from Huracán and Gimnasia, would give them a chance to play the Promo and avoid direct relegation.

All five matches with relegation implications will be played simultaneously tomorrow at 2 p.m. Eastern, so no one has the advantage of knowing exactly what result they need ahead of time.

Back to River and the prospect of relegation. The truth is, even under the worst combination of outcomes, River would end up in the Promo against either San Martin or Belgrano, and they would have 180 minutes to secure their spot in the first division.

No matter how this all turns out, you can expect all kinds of accusations of match fixing and other shenanigans after the fact. Will River bribe the Quilmes players to beat Olimpo? Will Boca try to bribe Lanús to beat River? It’s happened before.

Although I’m no River fan, and would probably have a good laugh at seeing them relegated, the reality is that Argentine soccer needs River Plate. The Boca vs River Superclásico is one of the great rivalries of world soccer. River also draws some of the largest audiences in the league. Relegation would definitely impact the league’s bottom line. That said, I’m cheering for Lanús.